Prognosis and survival for vulvar cancer

Last medical review:

A prognosis is the doctor’s best estimate of how cancer will affect you and how it will respond to treatment. Survival is the percentage of people with a disease who are alive at some point in time after their diagnosis. Prognosis and survival depend on many factors.

The doctor will look at certain aspects of the cancer as well as characteristics of the person (such as their age and family history). These are called prognostic factors. The doctor will also look at predictive factors, which influence how a cancer will respond to a certain treatment and how likely it is that the cancer will come back after treatment.

Prognostic and predictive factors are often discussed together. They both play a part in deciding on a prognosis and a treatment plan just for you. Only a doctor familiar with your medical history, the type and stage and other features of the cancer, the treatments chosen and the response to treatment can put all of this information together with survival statistics to arrive at a prognosis and chances of survival.

The following are prognostic and predictive factors for vulvar cancer.

Spread to the lymph nodes

The most important prognostic factor for vulvar cancer is the number of lymph nodes in the groin (inguinofemoral nodes) that the cancer has spread to. Vulvar cancer that has not spread to any lymph nodes has the best prognosis.

Vulvar cancer that has spread to lymph nodes on both sides of the groin has a poorer prognosis than vulvar cancer that has spread only to lymph nodes on the same side of the groin as the tumour.

Stage

The stage is an important prognostic factor for most types of vulvar cancer. Stage includes the size of the tumour and where the cancer is in the body.

Vulvar cancer that is diagnosed at an early stage has a better prognosis than vulvar cancer that is diagnosed in advanced stages (the cancer has spread into nearby lymph nodes or other organs).

Association with HPV infection

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the vulva has a better prognosis than HPV-independent SCC.

Tumour diameter

Vulvar tumours that are 2 cm or smaller have a better prognosis than tumours that are larger than 2 cm.

Depth of tumour growth

The deeper the tumour has grown into the tissue, the poorer the prognosis.

Type of tumour

Verrucous carcinoma of the vulva has a good prognosis because it usually doesn’t spread. Vulvar melanoma has a poorer prognosis than other types of vulvar tumours because it often comes back (recurs) and spreads to other organs.

Time of recurrence

Vulvar cancer that comes back more than 2 years after it was treated has a better prognosis than vulvar cancer that comes back sooner.

Expert review and references

  • Amy Jamieson, MBChB, FRANZCOG, CGO, FRCSC
  • Lien Hoang, MD
  • Capria A, Tahir N, Fatehi M. Vulvar cancer. StatPearls [Internet]. StatPearls Publishing; 2023. https://www.statpearls.com/.
  • Gibb RK, Olawaiye AB, Bhosale PR, et al. Vulva. Amin, MB (ed.). AJCC Cancer Staging Manual. 8th ed. Chicago, IL: American College of Surgeons; 2017: 50:641–648.
  • Ling DC, Beriwal S. Therapy for vulvar cancer: radiation, systemic therapy, and treatment of persistent and recurrent disease. Chi DS, Khabele D, Dizon DS, Yasha C, eds.. Principles and Practice of Gynecologic Oncology. 8th ed. Philadelphia, PA: Wolters Kluwer; 2025: Kindle version, chapter 2.6.
  • Miljanović-Špika I, Madunić MD, Topolovec Z, et al. Prognostic factors for vulvar cancer. Acta Clinica Croatica. 2021: 60(1):25–32.
  • Musunuru HB, Vargo JA, Olawaiye AB, Beriwal S. Cancer of the vagina and vulva. DeVita VT Jr, Lawrence TS, Rosenberg S. eds. DeVita Hellman and Rosenberg's Cancer: Principles and Practice of Oncology. 12th ed. Philadelphia, PA: Wolters Kluwer; 2023: Kindle version, chapter 49, https://read.amazon.ca/?asin=B0BG3DPT4Q&language=en-CA.
  • National Comprehensive Cancer Network. NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology: Vulvar Cancer. Version 4.2024. 2024. https://www.nccn.org/home.

Survival statistics for vulvar cancer

Survival statistics for vulvar cancer are very general estimates. Survival is different for each stage of vulvar cancer.

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