Survival statistics for biliary tract cancers

Last medical review:

Survival statistics for cancer are very general estimates and must be interpreted very carefully. Because these statistics are based on the experience of groups of people, they cannot be used to predict a particular person's chances of survival.

There are many different ways to measure and report cancer survival statistics. Your doctor can explain these statistics and what they mean to you.

Net survival

Net survival represents the probability (chance) of surviving cancer in the absence of other causes of death. It is used to give an estimate of the percentage of people who will survive cancer.

Net survival for gallbladder cancer

When cancer starts in gallbladder cells, it is called gallbladder cancer. In Canada, the 5-year net survival for gallbladder cancer is 19%. This means that, on average, about 19% of people diagnosed with gallbladder cancer will live for at least 5 years.

Net survival for bile duct cancer

When cancer starts in bile duct cells, it is called primary bile duct cancer. In Canada, a separate 5-year net survival statistic is not reported for bile duct cancer. But it is included in a group called other digestive system cancers, which includes similar cancers that are grouped and reported together. This statistic does not necessarily reflect the actual survival for the individual cancers within the group.

The 5-year net survival for all other digestive system cancers is 18%. This means that, on average, about 18% of people diagnosed with bile duct cancer will live for at least 5 years.

Survival by stage and tumour type

Survival varies by stage, type, and location of biliary tract cancer. Generally, the earlier gallbladder or bile duct cancer is diagnosed and treated, the better the outcome. Often biliary tract cancers are not found until they are at an advanced stage, which can make them harder to treat.

Survival by stage for biliary tract cancers are reported as 5-year relative survival. Relative survival looks at how likely people with cancer are to survive for at least 5 years after their diagnosis compared to people in the general population who do not have cancer but who share similar characteristics (such as age and sex).

Survival for biliary tract cancers can be grouped by whether the cancer is:

  • localized – the cancer is only in the gallbladder, such as carcinoma in situ or stage 1
  • regional – the cancer has spread to lymph nodes or structures outside but close to the gallbladder, such as stage 2 or 3
  • distant – the cancer has spread to structures far from the gallbladder, such as stage 4

There are no specific Canadian statistics available for the different stages and types of biliary tract cancer. The following information comes from a variety of sources. It may include statistics from other countries that are likely to have similar outcomes as in Canada.

Gallbladder cancer survival
Group 5-year relative survival
Localized 69%
Regional 28%
Distant 3%
Intrahepatic bile duct cancer survival
Group 5-year relative survival
Localized 23%
Regional 9%
Distant 3%
Extrahepatic (perihilar and distal) bile duct cancer survival
Group 5-year relative survival
Localized 18%
Regional 18%
Distant

3%

Questions about survival

Talk to your doctor about your prognosis. A prognosis depends on many factors, including:

  • your health history
  • the type of cancer
  • the stage
  • certain characteristics of the cancer
  • the treatments chosen
  • how the cancer responds to treatment

Only a doctor familiar with these factors can put all of this information together with survival statistics to arrive at a prognosis.

Expert review and references

  • Jamil Asselah, MD
  • American Cancer Society. Survival Rates for Bile Duct Cancer. 2023. https://www.cancer.org/.
  • American Cancer Society. Survival Rates for Gallbladder Cancer. 2023. https://www.cancer.org/.
  • Statistics Canada. Table 13-10-0158-01 Age-Specific Five-Year Net Survival Estimates for Primary Sites of Cancer, By Sex, Three Years Combined. 2008 to 2010.

Medical disclaimer

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